What is dual-scenario mining valuation?
Dual-scenario valuation rates every miner under two explicit futures — Scenario B, in which the company executes its official roadmap, and Scenario A, a specific identified milestone miss — so the assumed-execution risk is visible rather than buried inside a single point estimate.
A single target hides which milestone risk is priced; naming Scenario A (the permit that slips, the financing that dilutes, the study that disappoints) makes the downside concrete and falsifiable.
The two scenarios are blended at the conviction weight (W) — how much of the optimistic case the read underwrites — so the output is a defended range, not an averaged-away guess.
It is the institutional shape of analysis: not "what will happen" but "here are both paths and what each is worth."
Worked example
- VGZ — a permitted gold developer carrying a deposit toward a construction decision (NT Australia, Tier 1, 9-Factor 70.2) — the "orebody with a plan" where B-executes-vs-A-slips is sharpest. The per-ticker scenario table and milestone are members-only.