What is a dual-scenario matrix in mining valuation?
The scenario matrix is the structured grid that pairs each miner’s two futures — Scenario B (the official roadmap executed) and Scenario A (a specific identified miss) — with the conviction weight W that blends them, turning two point estimates into a single defended valuation range instead of one averaged-away guess.
Each scenario carries its own valuation; the matrix is what holds them side by side, so the assumed-execution risk is explicit rather than buried inside a single number.
The conviction weight W — assigned in discrete buckets, never a free-floating dial — sets how much of the optimistic Scenario B the read underwrites, so the blended range is defended by a stated evidence level rather than a vibe.
The architecture is public; the per-ticker matrix is the paid product: which milestone defines Scenario A, the scenario target values, and the W assigned this month live behind the login, while the concept and structure stay free.
Worked example
- VGZ — a permitted gold developer (9-Factor 70.2) — the "orebody with a plan" where Scenario B-executes vs Scenario A-slips is sharpest. The per-ticker scenario table, milestone identification, and W assignment are members-only; the public card carries the nine category scores.